But expect defeat of $900 million in home and farm subsidies for veterans.
As Prop. 12, it is at the end of a lengthy ballot, where voters typically select "no."

                More rights for crime victims will have little trouble getting the thumbs-up.
The measure would also make it harder for convicted criminals to be paroled.
                Animal rights will pass, giving chickens more room to stretch and roam.
The Humane Society is outspending the egg industry, which fears a big financial hit.
                A ban on same-sex marriage will fail, influenced once again by the young,
who tend to be more liberal on social issues than older voters in the state.
                Abortion notification is likely to fall short. To terminate a pregnancy,
minors would have to wait 48 hours until their parents were informed by a doctor.
                Utilities won’t have to speed up their timetable for using renewable fuel.
Even environmental groups and renewable energy firms say the idea is unrealistic.

                Obama will win handily in Calif., where Democrats outnumber Republicans
by a margin of 44% to 32%. In some local legislative races, Republican candidates
are distancing themselves from John McCain and the national party.
                In the Assembly, Democrats have a shot at getting a two-thirds majority,
which would let them spend what they want despite Republican objections.
But they’ll need to gain six seats...a tall order, though possible in a Democratic year.
                Republicans would still be able to hold up financial bills in the Senate
because Democrats won’t gain enough seats to boost their 25-15 majority by much.
The last redistricting ensured that few Senate seats would change hands in 2008.

 Not all development is on hold as the credit markets tighten up.
 The Ritz-Carlton Residences at L.A. Live has sold $260 million in homes
at the downtown project near the Staples Arena and the new Nokia Theater.
The homes will be built on the 27th through 52nd floors of a mixed-use building
to include the Ritz-Carlton Hotel and the JW Marriott Hotel. It’ll be ready in 2010.

                The city will promote affordable housing by expediting building permits
for low-cost housing construction along the new Gold Line rail route.
Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has lined up $1 billion in public and private money
to help get 20,000 housing units built. There seems to be money around
for publicly supported housing construction because of local government funding.
The rental market is strong in L.A., where many who can’t buy homes are renting.
                Builders probably won’t get other concessions that they have requested,
including increased height limits and reduced parking and open space requirements.

                A Hawthorne company is thriving by putting its own rockets into orbit.
Space Exploration Technologies, which launched a rocket in the Central Pacific,
now has a competitive edge in vying for a multimillion-dollar NASA contract
to resupply the International Space Station. It should win private contracts as well.

                The ports’ ban on polluting trucks won’t slow shipments to and from docks.
Since older trucks were excluded on Oct. 1, there has been no shortage of vehicles
to haul containers and bulk goods, thanks in part to subsidies for new equipment.
There also have been plenty of drivers, despite limits on independent truckers.
The next landmark date is 2012, when trucks must meet tough 2007 smog standards.

 The Resort at Pelican Hill in Newport Coast will provide 1200 new jobs
 once it opens on Nov. 26. The hiring by the Irvine Co. at its golf course
and hotel goes against the grain of Orange County employment, which has dropped
by 26,600 workers in a year’s time. The 5.8% jobless rate is the highest in a decade.
                Ceradyne of Costa Mesa has received its largest order for bulletproof vests,
a $2.4-billion contract with the Army. The vests will be made in Irvine and Kentucky
for use at the Army’s Aberdeen Proving Grounds, a weapons testing facility in Md.

 It’s become a tenant’s market for offices. Companies are upgrading
 to higher-class space at rates close to what they were paying before.
They’re getting bigger tenant improvement allowances and discounted lease rates.
Warehouse tenants also will drive a harder bargain as the vacancy rate grows.
                The region will be a big beneficiary of the high-speed-rail proposition,
likely to pass Nov. 4, if money is approved later to extend it to the Inland Empire.
The train would go between Riverside and L.A. in 33 minutes and between Riverside
and San Diego in 48 minutes. Other stops would be made at Ontario and Murrieta.
Locally, it would generate 20,000 new jobs and $700 million in payroll.

 Office projects will be delayed as builders wait for the vacancy rate to drop.
 Empty space in the commercial real estate market grew from 10.6% to 14%
in the third quarter, compared with a year earlier. Out of 1.2 million sq. ft.
of buildings completed in the first three months of the year, only 35% has been filled.
A few large pending lease transactions should reduce the vacancy rate by year-end.

                But work will probably start on two big developments outside of the city:
                The Pavilion at Oceanside, a 92-acre shopping mall with a theater,
health club and retail stores, at the site of the former Valley Drive-In Theaters.
                And El Cajon’s $48-million Public Safety Center for police and city staff.
The center is funded by a 10-year, half-cent sales tax approved by voters in 2004.

 Expect even more development at NASA Research Park in Mountain View
 beyond the 40-acre Google campus. UC Santa Cruz and other universities
are seeking 70 acres to build offices, labs and R&D space for high-tech research.

                Oakland’s revamped Jack London Square will welcome 15 new restaurants
near a big public market. The Waterfront Plaza Hotel will also be remodeled.
                But housing at Oakland’s former Oak Knoll Naval Hospital is a no-go.
The developer, SunCal, was depending on financing from the failed Lehman Brothers.
The ambitious project would have had 960 homes and 30,000 sq. ft. of shops.

                FedEx Ground Package Systems will occupy Fairfield’s biggest warehouse,
a 330,750-sq.-ft. site on Fermi Drive. And the firm is tripling its space in Benicia.
Also in Fairfield, Kiewit Corp. plans a 30,000-sq.-ft. office and administrative center
to house its regional construction, engineering and mining services business.
                A Cloverdale-Larkspur commuter train has a good chance in the election.
Marin and Sonoma county voters will consider a sales tax to fund it on Nov. 4.

                Count on a high-tech business slump next year but no new dot-com bust.
Weak holiday sales and soft demand abroad are going to hurt Silicon Valley,
but the industry is not as bloated as it was in the late 1990s. Figure on no growth
or a small sales decline in 2009, with a few exceptions: Laptops and mobile phones.

 Several closings will take their toll on the region. International Paper
 is going to close its corrugated container plant in Hanford in December,
laying off 90 workers. Some will be transferred to the nearby Exeter plant.
In addition, Varco Pruden Buildings, which makes pre-engineered steel buildings
in Turlock, will close in June 2009. About 175 of its workers will be laid off.
                But a few companies are moving in. Road Machinery of Phoenix,
which sells heavy equipment, is expanding by purchasing Shanahan Equipment.
New outlets will be located in Redding, Sacramento, Fresno and Bakersfield.
Also, Tesco plans to open seven Fresh & Easy neighborhood markets in Fresno.

                West Sacramento’s waterfront plans are getting a boost from a bill
signed by Gov. Schwarzenegger to sell or trade state land south of Tower Bridge.
The city wants a promenade, housing and shopping along the Sacramento River.
                El Dorado County will give holders of building permits a one-year extension
to finish their projects without paying an extra fee. The number of renewal requests
from the two-year permits has increased sharply as the economy has stagnated.
 

A drop in illegal immigration will squeeze some California employers. Tighter border controls and stepped-up raids at some workplaces have helped reduce illegal immigration to the U.S. from Mexico by 50% this year. Many foreigners already here are packing up and going home to their families. Vegetable and fruit farmers are likely to experience more shortages, even among the ranks of legal workers. Other industries, such as construction, have been laying off workers and may hire later from the newly unemployed. The decline in illegals reduces the pressure for Congress to take action. But when the economy improves, expect a new push for major legislation that combines tighter borders, a guest worker program and a path to citizenship for the millions of illegal immigrants who are already here and choose to stay. It will become easier to overcome conservative GOP opposition as Democrats gain strength in Congress, no matter who is elected president.

 Hollywood is banking on digital movies to boost its future revenue.
 The Walt Disney Co. and other studios will join three theater companies
in spending $525 million to exhibit digital films at over 20,000 theaters next year.
Movies will be transmitted to theaters digitally rather than shipped in boxes.
Film companies are hoping to charge more for 3-D and high-definition products.
                But short term, studios are holding back on shooting new films.
With credit hard to come by, fewer new releases can be expected in 2009.

 Wine grape growers are less optimistic than they were a year ago.
 A survey by the Calif. wine industry and UC Davis showed a decline
in the percentage expecting increased profits from 75% in 2007 to 55% this year.
The share expecting reduced profits rose from 4% to 22%. Among factors to blame:
Higher costs, more regulations, tighter credit, distribution mergers and drought.
                But they have hopes for India as a wine market. Consumption there
will nearly double to 9 million liters per year because of higher disposable incomes,
Western influences and government efforts to discourage drinking of hard liquor.

 Next year’s danger will probably be even greater than it’s been in 2008,
 even if there’s a wet winter. A long drought, overbuilding in forested areas
and diseased trees mean that fire risks will be high next summer and fall.
                As a precaution, homeowners in some wooded areas face tougher rules
under laws that take effect Jan. 1. Brush within 100 feet of a home must be cleared
in high-hazard rural areas where the state has firefighting responsibilities.

                Previous state construction codes are going to be enforced more rigidly,
prompted by blazes in L.A. County and elsewhere. Required in fire-prone areas:
Roof gutters to prevent leaf accumulation. Wire mesh in attic vents. Wider roads
and driveways for fire equipment. Noncombustible roofs. More brush clearing.
                Insurance companies are setting even stricter limits in some areas...
requiring 200 feet of clearance. Those who don’t comply may have policies revoked.
                Property owners won’t have to pay fees that Gov. Schwarzenegger wanted.
Lawmakers declined to impose a surcharge on property insurance in all areas...
but higher in fire-prone areas...to help pay for new firefighting equipment.

 An at-will termination clause doesn’t mean a contractor is an employee,
 says a California Court of Appeal. A school inspector sued a company,
claiming that it improperly classified him as an independent contractor.
He said he was employed since his contract said he could be terminated “at will.”
The court disagreed, saying that the company did not control how he did his duties,
and that the at-will clause was not enough to reclassify him as an employee.

 Don’t be too encouraged by figures showing a big increase in home sales.
 Bargain basement foreclosed homes sold best. And the figures compare
with exceptionally low sales numbers in Sept. 2007, when deals were sparse.
Don’t count on a flood of home purchases until the credit crunch works itself out.
                Home prices will probably dip 10% more in Calif. before turning around
late next year or early in 2010. The inventory of unsold homes will remain high.
                That means more distress for industries reliant on housing: Landscaping,
home appliance makers, financial services, carpeting, aluminum siding, etc.

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©2008 The Kiplinger Washington Editors